Scenario if the Govt loses trust vote

What happens if the result of a trust vote is a tie?

In case of a tie in Parliament the Speaker is authorized to caste a vote. Also the Speaker does not resign even after the dissolution of Parliament unless a protem Speaker assumes charge. This time the role of Speaker Somnath Chatterjee has been the most debated as his name was controversially included along with the other Left MPs in the list handed to the President, while withdrawing support to the Government. But Chatterjee refused to step down and his name was excluded from the list.

What if the UPA loses trust vote?

Obviously, as per the provisions of our Constitution the Prime Minister claiming collective responsibility on behalf of his Cabinet would submit his resignation to the President and there may be fresh elections in the country, creating much instability in the country. But there may be other possibilities too, such as:

Possibility 1: With a number of parties in which TDP and Left are worth mentioning, raising toast in name of the Dalit ‘savior’ Mayawati, she may become the PM, leading a Third Front government that would enjoy the outside support of BJP. This may give the country its first Dalit woman PM-or Maya may just hold a significant portfolio in a Third Front led government at Centre.

Possibility 2: A most interesting would be the combo of BJP and UNPA. What would happen then of the Left’s vow of never supporting a communal party like the BJP? And where would the nuke deal go then - deep down in oblivion, or in pages of history as some “unfinished proposed negotiation on nuclear energy with the US”?

Possibility 3: No party gets a clear cut majority and the President asks the present PM to continue his party’s rule, but as caretaker government until fresh elections are ordered. The UPA no wonder in practice will enjoy the same powers, except of course the power to take the N-deal forward. As a consequence the PM will not be able to take any decision on the nuclear agreement though the US has shown its willingness to negotiate the deal with the minority government of India. The Left has already issued a caveat that any such misadventure on the part of the government would face vehement and adamant opposition.